BetOnline.ag has a list of simple ‘First Pick Props’. They quote the odds and you have to decide will the first pick be an ‘Offensive Player’ or a ‘Defensive Player’. Some of the ones that are blatantly obvious aren’t priced–for example, we all know that Cincinnati is picking an offensive player at at #1. We’ll run through some of these and try to find some decent value. We hit the first batch of these props in a previous post as well as the second batch of these props:
2020 NFL DRAFT FIRST PICK PROPS–PART THREE
MINNESOTA VIKINGS FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER -110 DEFENSIVE PLAYER -130
Vikings have the #22 pick from Buffalo and their own pick at #25. They’ve got a lot of options here but most projections (including mine) have them picking the best defensive players available at both spots. That’s how we’ll play it.
BET MINNESOTA VIKINGS FIRST PICK DEFENSIVE PLAYER -130
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER +115 DEFENSIVE PLAYER -155
Word on the mean streets of Logan, Utah is that the Patriots are looking to trade up from their #23 spot to take Utah State QB Jordan Love. Jason Stidham very well might be their ‘Plan A’ but it wouldn’t hurt to give him some competition. This one makes a lot of sense.
BET NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS FIRST PICK OFFENSIVE PLAYER +115
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER +125 DEFENSIVE PLAYER -165
The rationale is that the Saints want to beef up the defense as much as possible hoping to make a Super Bowl run in what may or may not be Drew Brees’ final season.
BET NEW ORLEANS SAINTS FIRST PICK DEFENSIVE PLAYER -165
NEW YORK GIANTS FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER -400 DEFENSIVE PLAYER +250
BOL also has a prop on the NY Giants first pick where OL Tristan Wirfs is favored. That’s how we see them drafting–looking to beef up the OL–but we’re thinking more along the lines of Jedrick Wills Jr. Don’t want to lay the -400 so we’ll take Wills at +150 at BOL to be the Giants’ first pick.
BET NY GIANTS FIRST PICK JEDRICK WILLS +150
NEW YORK JETS FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER -800 DEFENSIVE PLAYER +425
Jets don’t draft until #11 and the prevailing wisdom is that GM Joe Douglas is going to focus on rebuilding the OL here. They also need help at wide receiver but this is a very deep class at that position so they’re hoping to find a decent player when they pick at #40. Don’t want to lay that price though.
PASS
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER -300 DEFENSIVE PLAYER +200
Eagles need a wide receiver and there is speculation that they’ll trade up to get one of the excellent quartet expected to go in the middle of the first round. If they don’t pull a trade, they’ll likely go with the best player available at #24 which will likely be an offensive lineman. The offensive player looks like the right side but with so many variables no interest in laying the loot.
PASS
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER -250 DEFENSIVE PLAYER +170
Niners have a pair of first round picks– #13 from Indy and #31. They won’t pick again until #156. They’ll likely take whichever stud wide receiver Las Vegas doesn’t. Good chance that it’ll be either Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy or Henry Ruggs III. Tough to go wrong with either one.
BET SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS FIRST PICK OFFENSIVE PLAYER -250
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER +130 DEFENSIVE PLAYER -170
Seahawks pick at #27 and will likely go the ‘best talent available’ route. Since the majority of the talent at that stage will likely be on the defensive side of the ball we’ll bet accordingly.
BET SEATTLE SEAHAWKS FIRST PICK DEFENSIVE PLAYER -170
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER -300 DEFENSIVE PLAYER +200
Bucs have already picked up a ‘pretty fair’ quarterback via free agency along with his tight end sidekick. Picking at #14 they can add some more offensive weapons. Alternately, they can pick an offensive lineman to help keep Tom Brady upright. They’ve got a lot of options but no interest at the price.
PASS
TENNESSEE TITANS FIRST PICK
OFFENSIVE PLAYER +110 DEFENSIVE PLAYER -150
Titans won’t pick until #29 but their biggest need looks to be on the defensive side of the ball, specifically their ability to put pressure on opposing QBs.
