- Only twelve of the 32 NFL teams turned a profit last year against the spread.
- Only four of these teams earned more than five units for NFL bettors.
- The ‘public’ popularity of NFL betting often produces huge swings in pointspread performance from one season to the next.
It’s no secret that the NFL is the biggest betting sport at North American facing sportsbooks. As such, it’s influenced greatly by ‘public perception’. This is a factor in every sport–at least to some extent–but due to the NFL’s massive popularity as a spectator and betting sport it’s magnified greatly. In advance of the start of the 2023 NFL regular season, it’s a good idea to consider which teams performed the best and worst against the spread.
These are the teams performed the best against the number during the 2022 NFL football season. Be prepared for some surprises!
NEW YORK GIANTS (+8.5 UNITS)
If a wealthy benefactor had come to you prior to the 2022 NFL season and offered to bankroll a $1000 week with this condition: you had to pick one team before the season and bet that team every week. The New York Giants probably wouldn’t have been the team you would have picked. NFL football betting is very cyclical. Every sport is to some extent, but the NFL’s mainstream popularity magnifies this phenomenon. What this means is that you’ll frequently see bad pointspread teams from the previous year performing well against the number the subsequent season and vice versa.
The New York Giants weren’t expected to finish over .500 in 2022 but they did and even earned a wildcard playoff berth. They were nowhere near the top two teams in the NFC East but there’s nothing at all wrong with going from 4-13 to 9-7-1. The Giants’ pointspread turnaround was equally impressive. In 2021, they went 6-11 ATS losing -6.1 units. In 2022, they went 14-5 ATS (a very healthy 73.7%) and earned +8.5 units. That they did this in one of the toughest divisions in football–a division where no team finished below .500 SU–is all the more impressive.
DETROIT LIONS (+6.5 UNITS)
The Lions are at least superficially similar to the Giants in their recent season trajectories. They were awful in 2021, but scrapped to a winning SU record in 2022. The differences end there, however, because they’ve been money in the bank for NFL bettors since Dan Campbell became their head coach. In 2021, the Lions were a woeful 3-13 SU but a solid 11-6 ATS (64.7%) earning +4.4 units for bettors. In 2022, they improved to 9-8 SU and 12-5 ATS earning +6.5 units. That means in regular season games under Campbell they’ve gone 23-11 ATS which is a very healthy 67.6% winning mark against the number.
The Lions’ 2021 and 2022 performance is instructive on several levels. Most significantly, it underscores the fact that a team doesn’t need to have a winning SU record to make money for bettors. Secondly, it illustrates the difficulty the public has in letting go of an outdated concept of a team’s ability. You don’t necessarily need to be a bettor to understand this but it definitely helps. The ‘squares’ completely dismissed the Lions in 2021 despite clear improvement under then first year coach Campbell. When they opened the season losing six of their first seven games they tuned out again. Even as Detroit finished the season on an 8-2 SU run, the ‘public’ couldn’t be bothered. An interesting side note: Detroit was the only team in the NFL North to have a positive points for/points against differential (+26). The division winning Vikings went 13-4 SU but finished with a -3 differential.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+6.4 UNITS)
The Bengals have been a very tough team to figure out in recent years. In the past two years, all they’ve done is make money for bettors. Having Joe Burrow as your starting quarterback helps immensely. In 2021, Cincy went 13-8 SU/14-7 ATS for +6.3 Units. In 2022, they finished 14-5 SU/13-6 ATS for +6.4 units. They’re going to be hard pressed to reprise their ATS performance in 2023 simply because they’re not a ‘secret’ any more after reaching the AFC Championship Game and giving eventual Super Bowl winners Kansas City all they could handle.
