The CFP kicks off Friday as Indiana travels to South Bend to face Notre Dame in a thrilling inner-state matchup. The winner will advance to the quarterfinals to face Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.
Hoosiers vs Fighting Irish
After being upset by Northern Illinois back in Week 2, Notre Dame has been on fire ever since. They’ve won ten straight games, covered the spread of more than 14-points in six consecutive games, and lead the country with a +26.3 win margin. Notre Dame ranked 10th in running the ball averaging 224.8 YPG and will try to establish the run attack against the Hoosiers. The Hoosiers only blemish this season is a loss to the Buckeyes but ran through the schedule beating the likes of Michigan, Michigan State and Washington. Indiana did have issues against Ohio State’s defense when they put up 151 total yards and just 68 passing yards in a 38-15 loss. The Hoosiers do have the best run defense in the country allowing just 70.8 YPG but those numbers are skewed as the team didn’t race any team in the top 25 in rushing.
KEY NUMBERS TO KNOW
Scoring Offense ND: 39.8 PPG (3rd) IND: 43.3 PPG (2nd)
Yards Per Play ND: 6.7 (8th) IND: 6.66 (12th)
Scoring Defense ND: 13.6 (3rd) IND: 14.7 (6th)
Yards Per Play Allowed ND: 4.53 (6th) IND: 4.13 (3rd)
Player Prop Best Bets
Riley Leonard: OVER 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Riley Leonard ran for 721 yards and 14 touchdowns this season and will be a difference maker in this game. Leonard ran for 50-plus yards eight times this season and should find some success against the No. 1 run stop defense in the nation.
Ty Son Lawton: Anytime TD (+120)
Ty Son Lawton led the team with 12 TDs this season and while the Hoosiers do have a dual threat in the backfield with Justice Ellison, Lawton offers better value to find the end zone.
Indiana vs Notre Dame Prediction
It’s strength vs strength as the Hoosiers high-octane offense goes up against Notre Dame’s stingy defense. Indiana has the firepower to take shots against a secondary that got burned by USC. But the Fighting Irish’s run game will take advantage of a leaky Indiana front. This total opened at 53.5 and has gone down as both sides can control the ball on offense. Barring turnovers, this should stay close as it is a playoff game, and neither side wants to make mistakes.
PICKS: Indiana +7.5 and UNDER 50.5
Recent Betting Trends
Indiana has hit the OVER in last 8 road games
Notre Dame is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games
Indiana is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games
