They’ve met 19 times in their storied history and they are dead even with a record of 9-9-1. The stakes are high in the 20th all-time meeting between Notre Dame and Penn State as the winner advances to the national championship game.
Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish have been red-hot as they’ve won 12 straight games including twice in the CFP. The defense has been a big reason why they are in the semi finals holding the Hoosiers and Bulldogs to a combined 27 points, and remember, 14 points against Indiana came in the final 90 seconds of that game. In the playoffs, Notre Dame has created 3 turnovers and 7 sacks while holding opponents to an average of just 287 yards of offense. Notre Dame is playing impressive football and the Irish front seven has been carrying this defense but faces a ground attack that has run for 405 yards in two playoff games.
Penn State
When you look at Penn State’s path, let’s say, it hasn’t been a difficult one. The Nittany Lions have been 9 to 12 point favorites in two games and knocked off the No. 11-ranked SMU Mustangs 38-10, then beat Boise State 31-14 in the quarterfinals. Penn State steps up in class in a big way. The defense has been stellar ranking in the top-10 in almost every major category. They were able to contain Ashton Jeanty to just 3.5 yards per carry and they will need this unit against the Fighting Irish’s ground attack as they average 6.2 yards per carry and ranks third in rush EPA. Penn State’s front seven led the Big Ten with 102 tackles for loss and was able to disrupt game plans of their opponents. One final note here, head coach James Franklin is 4-19 against Top 10 teams.
Player Prop Best Bets
Riley Leonard: OVER Rushing Attempts
QB Riley Leonard hasn’t dazzled with his arm, but has been efficient running the ball, 14 carries for 80 yards against Georgia and 30 yards against Indiana. He’s run 37 times in his last three games and expect him to take advantage when he finds open space.
Tyler Warren: OVER Receptions
Tight end Tyler Warren has been a game-changer with 98 catches for 1,158 yards, eight receiving touchdowns, and ran for four scores. He’s one of the most versatile players in the country and has at least six receptions in six of his last seven games.
Props have yet to be released at time of writing, but check website for latest odds
Prediction: Notre Dame -1.5
The Irish have been playing their best football when it matters most. They have been able to stymie offenses and if they pressure QB Drew Allar, it could be a tough day for the Nittany Lions. In the end, it will come down to coaching and right now Marcus Freeman has been exceptional.
THE PICK: Notre Dame 20, Penn State 17
Game Betting Odds
Notre Dame -1.5
Penn State +1.5
Total: 47
Moneyline: Notre Dame -125, Penn State +105
Recent Betting Trends
Notre Dame is 10-0 ATS in the last ten games (11-2-1 this season)
Penn State is 8-7 ATS in 2024-25
Nittany Lions are 0-2 ATS as an underdog this season
Notre Dame is 4-0 ATS in a neutral site game
ND is 5-0-1 ATS against ranked opponents
Penn State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
