The chase for Super Bowl 59 begins in the AFC as the Los Angeles Chargers head to NRG Stadium to face the Houston Texans. Jim Harbaugh’s side is a 3-point road favorite but can the Texans find a way to hold home field-advantage? Let’s break down this Wild Card matchup.
Los Angeles Chargers
Not many expected Jim Harbaugh to make the postseason in his first season but that’s exactly what the Chargers did. While they did go 11-6, only two wins came against a playoff team (both against Denver). Justin Herbert has had a rebound season throwing for 3,870 yards, 23 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions. The offensive line provided the protection to unleash a passing attack with rookie WR Ladd McConkey (82 receptions, 1,149 yards) becoming the go-to-guy. Quentin Johnston (711 yards, 8 touchdowns) has also added to the offense. The ground game is efficient enough to balance the offense as J.K. Dobbins is the feature back. The bread and butter is the defense. The Chargers rank T3 with a +12 turnover differential and if they get out to an early lead, they could lock it down and make it very difficult on the Texans. L.A. will be a nightmare for Houston who are still without receivers Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs. The Chargers defense has been playing incredible and are the NFL’s best-scoring defense allowing (17.7 PPG).
Houston Texans
After a 5-1 hot start the Texans are limping into the playoffs going 5-6 the rest of the way and losing two star receivers in Dell and Diggs. The Texans’ offensive line continues to surrender pressure at one of the highest rates in football. The defense has been able to dominate games against bad offenses but struggled against playoff opponents. The offense has been disappointing, 2nd worst of playoff teams (21.9 PPG) and C.J. Stroud has thrown 12 interceptions, he only had 5 in his rookie season. Houston has struggled to run the ball and Stroud has been inconsistent with a decimated receiving corps, Nico Collins the only real threat. Houston has averaged just 11 points at home in their last two games and just 16 points per outing over the last four games.Houston’s hope relies on the defense as Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter are a dangerous pass rush duo threat and the secondary is much improved.
Prediction: Under 42.5
This number opened at 44.5 and has taken action early as both teams are heavily reliant on their defenses. Houston’s offense has had major issues ranking 21st in EP per play and 31st in success rate per snap. L.A. is among the league’s elite owning the fifth-lowest third-down conversion percentage. This game should be a heavy dose of ground attack from both teams, meaning chewing up the clock, and more field goal attempts.
Game Betting Odds
Chargers -3 (-105)
Texans +3 (-115)
Total: 42.5
Moneylines: Chargers -155, Texans +130
Recent Betting Trends
Since last year, Texans are 22-13-1 to the under in the regular and postseason
Houston is 12-1 to the UNDER when the total is above 42
Chargers are 9-8 to the UNDER this season
LA is 12-5 ATS, tied for best this year
