Denver Broncos
The Broncos weren’t supposed to make the playoffs since their preseason win total was just paltry 6.5. But Sean Payton has turned around this team with rookie QB Bo Nix and the league’s No. 3 defense. Nix has thrown 12 touchdowns in the last four games, although the Chiefs played their backups in the finale. Still, this team has been efficient and defense has been a menace leading the league in sacks with 63. That pass rush will be important against Josh Allen, who likes to scramble and the Broncos may want to contain him and make him stay in the pocket and pass the ball. And don’t forget, Patrick Surtain, possibly the Defensive Player of the Year is the best corner in the NFL.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have the likely MVP in Josh Allen and go into the playoffs with big statement wins against both top seeds, Detroit and Kansas City. Buffalo is No.2 in scoring (30.9 PPG) and ninth in passing (227.9 YPG) and need to continue that output to find success against one of the top-tier defenses in the NFL. James Cook has also been a big weapon out of the backfield running and receiving while Amari Cooper has helped the receiving corps. But can the defense stack up against a very underrated team. The Bills got torched by the Rams and Lions giving up 44 and 42 points plus giving up 35 to the Ravens. If you take out the games against the Rams and Lions, the Bills allowed 61 points in four games, but their opponents were non-playoff teams (Jets, Patriots twice, 49ers).
Player Prop Top Picks
Josh Allen: OVER Rushing Yards
In his last two playoff games, Josh Allen ran for 72 and 74 yards last season. While he only averaged about 33 YPG this season, expect him to try and do it all against a very good Broncos defense. The pass rush may require Allen to get out of the pocket and pick up yards with his legs.
Bo Nix: OVER Rushing Yards
Another quarterback who loves to scramble and that was evident in his rookie season. Over his last four games Bo Nix averaged 32 YPG and just like Allen, could try to get things done with his legs.
Props have yet to be released at time of writing, but check website for latest odds
Best Bet: Denver +9.5
The Broncos were tied for an NFL best 12-5 ATS this season and lost just one game by nine points or more. The Bills have racked up big points this season but only a few times against playoff teams. Payton will find a way to keep his team close, or a backdoor later touchdown cover. His record ATS has been impressive as an underdog, going 54-39-2.
Game Betting Odds
Broncos +9.5 (-120)
Bills -9.5 (+100)
Total: 47
Moneyline: Denver +395, Buffalo -500
Recent Betting Trends
Denver is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games
The Broncos are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against Buffalo
Buffalo is 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games
The Bills are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games and 8-0 SU in their last 8 games at home
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against Denver
