Sunday’s Super Wild Card schedule wraps up with the Washington Commanders against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a clash between two of the higher scoring teams. Can the Commanders keep their Cinderella season going or will the Bucs reach the Divisional Round for the second straight season. Let’s preview Sunday Night Football.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
The Tampa Bay offense is led by Baker Mayfield who had a career year, with 41 touchdown passes and 4,500 yards while rookie Bucky Irving became a household name rushing for 1,000-yards. And Mike Evans rounded out the key pieces as he reached 1,000 yards for the 11th straight season. But the Bucs really improved the run game going from 32nd last year to fourth in 2024 averaging 149.2 YPG. Additionally, Tampa was No. 4 in scoring with 29.5 points a game and averaged 32 points in the final seven games of the regular season. But there are questions on the defense as it continues to miss key pieces including corner Jamel Dean and safeties Antoine Winfield and Jordan Whitehead. How will that affect an upstart Commanders offense with a dazzling rookie quarterback? The offensive line has to give Mayfield protection as he was sacked 40 times this season, tied for tenth most.
Washington Commanders (12-5)
The Commanders surprised everyone by not only making the playoffs but winning an astonishing 12 games with a rookie quarterback. Jayden Daniels has been electric and will likely be named Offensive Rookie of the Year. Not only did he throw for 3,568 yards and 9 TDs, he also rushed for 891 yards and 6 majors. The Bucs are No. 4 in scoring but the Commanders are right behind them at No. 5 averaging 28.5 PPG. Meanwhile, the defense still has holes as it remains in the bottom-five stopping the run allowing 4.85 YPC and 136 YPG, 28th overall. What needs to improve is the red-zone defense as Washington gives up touchdowns 60% of the time and have only seven interceptions, fourth-lowest among active playoff teams. What could be the difference maker in this game, fourth time conversions as the Commanders are 20-for-23, about 87% so expect them to go for it on fourth and short most of the time.
Prediction: Commanders +3 / Washington ML +152
Only two rookie quarterbacks have been able to win as a rookie in the last decade, Brock Purdy (2022), C.J. Stroud (2023). Jayden Daniels has shown he’s something special. While he hasn’t played in the playoffs (college or pro) he can carry this team against a Bucs squad that does have some holes. Washington not only covers, but pulls off the upset on Sunday Night Football.
Player Prop Plays
Jayden Daniels: OVER Rushing Yards
He was second in rushing among QBs, just trailing Lamar Jackson. Jayden Daniels loves to take off and pick up yards with his legs. He’s hit 44 rushing yards ten times and in his last three full games (left Cowboys game early), he’s averaging 91 yards on the ground and did rack up 88 yards vs Tampa in the season opener.
Baker Mayfield: OVER 1.5 Touchdown Passes
Baker Mayfield has hit this total in five straight games and 12 times overall this season including throwing for 4 TDs in the season opener against Washington. I’d also sprinkle some on O2.5 because there is a chance these offenses could go toe-to-toe.
Props have yet to be released at time of writing, but check website for latest odds
Game Betting Odds
Commanders +3 (-101)
Buccaneers -3 (-119)
Total: 50.5
Moneyline: Washington +152, Tampa Bay -172
