The Divisional Round is set and the top seed in the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) face the Houston Texans (11-7) at Arrowhead Stadium Saturday afternoon. It’s a rematch from the regular season as KC beat Houston at home 27-19. Can the Chiefs continue their run for a third straight appearance or will the Texans be primed for a colossal upset?
Houston Texans
The Texans were AFC South division champs but struggled in the back half of the season. They started 5-1 but went 5-6 the rest of the way. The offense has been disappointing overall as it ranked in the bottom quarter of the NFL in DVOA and worse in other metrics. Houston struggled to run the ball and the receiving corps was ravaged by injuries as Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs were lost for the season. Still, they managed to find a way to get a win in the Wild Card Round against the Chargers with the defense the main reason why. C.J. Stroud found success against the No. 7 passing defense, throwing for 282 yards and a TD. The Chiefs were 18th against the pass (218.8 YPG) and Stroud will need to take advantage with his receivers, including Nico Collins, who had 122 yards against L.A. Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter provided the pass rush and sacked Justin Herbert four times and forced him to throw four interceptions, including a pick-six. How will this unit fare against Patrick Mahomes? In Week 16, the Texans allowed 260 passing yards and were only able to get to Mahomes just once. Any chance of the upset, that pass rush needs to force the Chiefs QB to get rid of the ball faster.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs cruised through the regular season with the best record in the AFC but they weren’t as dominant as the record suggests. KC finished 11-0 in one-score games and survived some nail biting finishes. Still, they are the top seed and looking to become the first team in history to win three straight Super Bowls. As always, Patrick Mahomes leads the way. While it wasn’t his best season with numbers, he seemed to find ways to make crucial plays when it mattered most. The offense started to get better down the stretch as DeAndre Hopkins started to fit in while Hollywood Brown and Isiah Pacheco returned from injuries. There have been issues on the offensive line but expect the unit to pick it up in the playoffs. The defense started off exceptional but saw a massive drop especially against the pass. Expect this team to find a way to peak when it matters the most. While they aren’t the same Chiefs team from years past, they are just two home wins away from having a shot at making history. And by the way, they were a perfect 8-0 at Arrowhead this season.
Best Bet: Chiefs -8
The extra week off always helps and for Patrick Mahomes, he’s had two weeks off after sitting the final week of the regular season. He’s 12-2 SU at Arrowhead in the playoffs and you know he’s ready.
Bonus Best Bet: Under 42
Both defenses have played well this season and were in the top-9 for total yards. KC gave up the fourth fewest points, just 19.2 per game while the Texans were at 21.9 PPG. Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans is all about defense and is 20-5-1 for the UNDER when the total closes north of 42 points. While Houston did score 32 points vs the best scoring defense in the NFL, they scored 9 points off a pick six, and a blocked extra point. Going from playing indoors in Houston to the cold at Arrowhead, may cause problems for the Texans.
Game Betting Odds
Houston Texans +8
Kansas City Chiefs -8
Total: 42
Moneyline: Texans +370, Chiefs -460
Recent Betting Trends
Texans are 3-6 ATS in last 9 games vs KC
Houston is 1-5 SU in the last 6 vs Chiefs
Total for Houston has gone OVER in 4 of the last 5 games at Kansas City
KC is 3-8 ATS in the last 11 games
The Chiefs have gone UNDER in 5 of the last 6 games.
Kansas City is 18-2 SU in their last 20 games
