- The traditional ‘Black Friday’ is on the verge of becoming an anachronism.
- The retail environment has changed dramatically with ‘brick and mortar’ sales less relevant.
- Many well known US retail brand names are ‘analog players in a digital world’.
The concept of ‘Black Friday’ will be completely inexplicable to the next generation. With ‘brick and mortar’ retail itself quickly becoming a relic of an earlier age the complete irrelevance of ‘Black Friday’ could happen much sooner rather than later. “Did people really leave their home on the day after Thanksgiving and brave traffic and crowds just to buy consumer goods?” “People really would get into fistfights at stores over cheap DVD players?” This will be very difficult to explain to our progeny.
For those of us who grew up in the 1980’s and earlier, ‘Black Friday’ has been part and parcel of the holiday experience for all of our lives. There’s no official consensus on when it ‘Black Friday’ began but the most widely accepted origin story dates back to Philadelphia in the early 1960’s. The local law enforcement called the two days after Thanksgiving as ‘Black Friday’ due to the increase in traffic, accidents and general ‘bloody mayhem’. This gave longtime Philadelphia booster and business community promoter Abe Rosen an idea–he convinced the city to rename the Friday and Saturday after Thanksgiving as ‘Big Friday’ and ‘Big Saturday’.
The idea caught on though Rosen’s ‘upbeat branding’ didn’t. ‘Big Saturday’ faded into obscurity which is a shame since it would be great to refer to ‘Sabado Gigante’ as part of the holiday shopping season. The real winner was the Friday after Thanksgiving which became a massive day for retail shopping–only with the Philly police’s original ‘Black Friday’ nomenclature. It took some time to blow up nationwide but by the 1980’s ‘Black Friday’ had become a de facto holiday which made sense since everyone was already off of work/school anyway. Although it has long been hyped as ‘the busiest shopping day of the year’ it’s statistically verifiable reign as such lasted only about 15 years from the early 2000’s.
Although individual ‘mileage would vary’ based on where and when you shopped, ‘Black Friday’ became synonymous with crowded malls, sales and in many cases boorish behavior and violence. According to the website ‘Black Friday Death Count‘ there have been 12 deaths and 117 injuries attributed to the shopping hysteria since 2006 citing ugly incidents like “San Antonio man helped a woman being beaten in a Walmart parking lot, shot dead“. There has even been an upswing in incidents where the angry mob starts looting the store in an effort to get the ‘ultimate bargain’. It has become routine for the foreign media to use ‘Black Friday’ as an indictment of American culture and on many levels the ugliness of the spectacle is difficult to rationalize.
‘BLACK FRIDAY’ IN DECLINE
‘Black Friday’ is now an endangered species due to a confluence of factors. The decline of the American shopping mall has been a well documented trend and one that will accelerate in velocity in coming years. Since ‘Black Friday’ was essentially a ‘mall-centric’ phenomenon it has suffered severe collateral damage. In reality, the problem is much larger than that as the entire ‘brick and mortar’ retail industry is reeling due to a combination of changing consumer habits, an overbuilt inventory of stores (many in shopping malls) and a mountain of burdensome debt. Until recently, major retail companies would just refinance debt that was coming due but the game has changed. Financial institutions see the ‘writing on the wall’ and no longer consider retail a good risk.
There’s no reason to think that this dynamic will change in the future. To the contrary, digital shopping is now entrenched in ‘middle America’ and will only become more so as ‘Flyover Country’ joins the 21st Century. Some ‘brick and mortar’ outlets are scrambling to find a digital strategy before it’s too late with varying degrees of success. Some are courting inevitable failure by doing the same thing they always have, albeit with an ‘online veneer’ slapped on for good measure. Many–including analog era relics like Sears and KMart–are simply ‘playing out the string‘ as they try to stave off their inevitable demise.
This sets up the basic plotlines for ‘Black Friday’ and the broader Holiday Season 2019. Expectations are for a very strong shopping season both for the ‘brick and mortar’ relics and online merchants. Below are the official SPORTS INSIDER betting odds for ‘Black Friday’ and they run the gamut from retail sales data to ‘shoppers behaving badly’:
BLACK FRIDAY/CYBER MONDAY 2019 BETTING ODDS
HOLIDAY SEASON 2019 RETAIL SALES ODDS
TOTAL US RETAIL SPENDING DURING HOLIDAY SEASON 2019?
Over $1 Trillion USD -150
Under $1 Trillion USD +130
TOTAL US RETAIL SPENDING ON CYBER MONDAY (DECEMBER 2) 2019?
Over $8 Billion USD -150
Under $8 Billion USD +130
TOTAL US RETAIL SPENDING ON BLACK FRIDAY (NOVEMBER 29) 2019?
Over $6.25 Billion USD +150
Under $6.25 Billion USD -170
TOTAL US RETAIL SPENDING ON THANKSGIVING (NOVEMBER 28) 2019?
Over $3.25 Billion USD -210
Under $3.25 Billion USD +180
DAY WITH HIGHEST TOTAL US RETAIL SALES?
Black Friday (November 29, 2019) +600
Cyber Monday (December 2, 2019) -750
Holiday retail sales data from eMarketer.com will be used to grade above propositions.
BLACK FRIDAY MISCELLANY BETTING ODDS
WHAT PERCENTAGE OF US BLACK FRIDAY IN-STORE SHOPPERS WILL ‘CAMP OUT’ AT THE STORE?
Over 19.5% +300
Under 19.5% -350
‘Camping out’ is defined as arriving before midnight local time on Thanksgiving Day. Data from National Retail Federation will be used for grading
TOTAL AMOUNT OF GIFT CARD SALES DURING US 2019 HOLIDAY SEASON RETAIL SALES PERIOD?
Over $32.5 billion USD -210
Under $32.5 billion USD +180
‘Holiday retail sales’ is the sum of November and December sales not including automobiles, gasoline and restaurants. Data from National Retail Federation will be used for grading.
NUMBER OF CUSTOMERS ENTERING MACY’S HERALD SQUARE NYC FLAGSHIP STORE AT 6 AM EASTERN OPENING ON NOVEMBER 29, 2019?
Over 17,500 -170
Under 17,500 +150
Number reported by Macy’s Corporate Communications will be used for grading purposes
AMOUNT OF TURKEY AND HAM SOLD BY WAL-MART FROM 12:01 AM EASTERN ON NOVEMBER 24, 2019 THROUGH 11:59 PM EASTERN ON NOVEMBER 27, 2019?
Over 149.5 million pounds -130
Under 149.5 million pounds +110
Number reported by Wal-Mart’s Corporate Communications will be used for grading purposes
BLACK FRIDAY 2019 ‘SHOPPERS BEHAVING BADLY’ PROPS
WHICH WILL BE HIGHER?
Number of 2019 fatal shark attacks worldwide +300
Number of 2019 Black Friday deaths worldwide +3.5 -350
Shark attack data from TrackingSharks.com and includes unprovoked attacks only. Black Friday death data from Black Friday Death Count will be used for grading purposes.
WHICH WILL BE HIGHER?
Number of 2019 fatal shark attacks in Australia +210
2019 Black Friday deaths in WalMart parking lots -250
Shark attack data from TrackingSharks.com and includes unprovoked attacks only. Black Friday death data from Black Friday Death Count will be used for grading purposes.
WHICH WILL BE HIGHER?
Number of 2019 Black Friday Deaths in USA -350
2019 Black Friday deaths in the rest of the world +300
Black Friday death and injury data from Black Friday Death Count will be used for grading purposes.
WILL THERE BE A PEPPER SPRAY INCIDENT ON BLACK FRIDAY 2019?
Yes -250
No +210
Data from Black Friday Death Count will be used for grading purposes.
WILL THERE BE A GUN RELATED INCIDENT ON BLACK FRIDAY 2019?
Yes -750
No +600
Data from Black Friday Death Count will be used for grading purposes.
WILL THERE BE A FIST FIGHT OR A PHYSICAL ASSAULT WITHOUT A WEAPON ON BLACK FRIDAY 2019?
Yes +210
No -250
Data from Black Friday Death Count will be used for grading purposes.
WILL THERE BE A TRAMPLING INCIDENT ON BLACK FRIDAY 2019?
Yes -150
No +130
Data from Black Friday Death Count will be used for grading purposes.
WHAT PERCENTAGE OF 2019 BLACK FRIDAY SHOPPERS WILL BE DRUNK?
Over 7.5% -150
Under 7.5% +130
Data from BestBlackFriday.com will be used for grading purposes.
STATE TO HAVE A REPORTED 2019 BLACK FRIDAY INJURY OR DEATH
California +300
Tennessee +500
New Jersey +500
Pennsylvania +500
New York +750
South Carolina +750
Arkansas +900
Nevada +900
North Carolina +1500
Virginia +1500
West Virginia +1750
Texas +1750
Illinois +2500
Michigan +2500
Alabama +2500
Any Other State +300
Data from Black Friday Death Count will be used for grading purposes.
