In case you’re wondering, the betting line in this game isn’t a mistake, yes, Denver is a 9-point favorite at home against the defending two-time Super Bowl champions. Bookmakers feel the Chiefs will be resting many of their top stars in a game the Broncos need to win to secure a playoff spot. But is the spread too high? Let’s find out.
Broncos Playing For The Playoffs
Everything is on the line for Denver as a win would eliminate Miami and Cincinnati, while clinching the final playoff spot in the AFC. The Broncos have lost two in a row including a heartbreaking 30-24 OT loss to the Bengals last week. Bo Nix had a solid game despite the loss completing 24 of 31 passes for 219 yards, three touchdowns, one interception while rushing for 31 years. Jaleel McLaughlin had 69 rushing yards, while Marvin Mims Jr. had a huge game with eight catches for 103 yards and two touchdowns. The defense pressured Joe Burrow all game long, sacking him 7 times while creating a turnover. With the expectation that Carson Wentz starts in place of Patrick Mahomes, the Broncos defense will look to exploit his lack of action and pressure him early, forcing him to make quick decisions. Denver has the firepower to compete and with the Chiefs likely sitting many starters including defensive star Chris Jones, you’d have to like their chances to clinch a postseason spot.
How Many Stars Will Rest?
The big question heading into this is not IF the Chiefs will rest players, but how many. Patrick Mahomes suffered a minor injury a few weeks ago and the line suggests he’ll sit this one out. Expect veterans Chris Jones and Travis Kelce to also sit this one out. But Kansas City has some returning players who may play just to take off some of the recent rust. Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown missed a big chunk of the season and could see some action but overall, will the Chiefs be motivated in a meaningless game for them?
Best Bet Prediction: Broncos -10.5
The Broncos should be able to take advantage of the absence of Mahomes and whichever other key players are not playing. The Broncos should be able to score but can the Chiefs find the end zone with Wentz? With what’s on the line, expect a lower scoring game with the Broncos easily covering against a Chiefs team getting ready for a bye week and the divisional playoff round.
Game Betting Odds
Chiefs +10.5
Broncos -10.5
Total: 39.5
Moneyline: Kansas City +400, Denver -550
Recent Betting Trends
Kansas City is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City’s last 5 games
Kansas City are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Denver
Denver is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games
The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games at home
Denver is 1-8 SU in last 9 home games vs KC
