The first round of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff was a bit underwhelming as every favorite won by double-digits at home. Now, the stage is set for neutral site bowl games with a trip to the semifinals on the line. We’ll break down every game and predict who we think advances to the final four.
Tuesday Dec. 31 – Fiesta Bowl (6) Penn State (-11, T-52) vs (3) Boise State
Penn State dismantled SMU quite easily and were overmatched at Happy Valley. Drew Allar didn’t play his best but he didn’t need to as the defense did more than enough to get the job done. Three sacks, three interceptions and held the Mustangs to just 253 total yards. The Nittany Lions now take on Boise State and Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty. The Broncos took Oregon to the wire earlier in the year, so they won’t back down despite being 11-point underdogs. Any chance of an upset, Jeanty needs to be at his best as he faces the No. 7 run stop unit during the regular season that allowed 100.2 YPG. Penn State wins but Boise State keeps it closer than the spread indicates.
THE PICK: Boise State +11
Wednesday Jan. 1 – Peach Bowl Texas (-14, T-52) vs. Arizona State
Texas and Clemson had the most entertaining game in the opening round and the Longhorns covered the 13.5-point spread by a late goal-line stand. Now, Texas takes on an underdog side that no one expected to be here. Many experts predicted ASU to finish dead last in the conference, instead the Sun Devils went on to win the Big 12 and put up 45 points in the championship game. While the Longhorns are dominant, ASU isn’t afraid of the big stage, especially with RB Cam Skattebo, who has three straight games with at least 147 rushing yards and 9 total touchdowns. Texas is the betting favorite to win the national title but could be in for a dog fight. Two touchdowns seem like too many points.
THE PICK: Arizona State +14
Wednesday Jan. 1 – Rose Bowl Ohio State (-2.5, T55) vs. Oregon
Many experts wrote off the Buckeyes after their upset loss to Michigan but now they find themselves in a rematch against Oregon, the other team that handed them a loss this season. Ohio State looked determined against Tennessee jumping out to a 21-0 lead in the first and never looked back. When these teams met in October, the Ducks squeaked out a one point victory in a game OSU had a chance to win late. This game should be another tight game that could come down to the final possession again. These teams easily could have met in the national championship game but the draw prevents that from happening. Likely the best game of the quarterfinals and it really can go either way. Oregon was undefeated this season and beat OSU. Let’s take the points.
THE PICK: Oregon +2.5
Wednesday Jan. 1 – Sugar Bowl Georgia (-1.5, T-44) vs. Notre Dame
Notre Dame crushed Indiana but the scoreline doesn’t indicate that. The Hoosiers scored 14 points in the final 87 seconds of the game to make it look respectable but the Fighting Irish dominated from start to finish. Don’t sleep on Notre Dame, many pundits feel they are a top-4 team in the country and they’ll get a chance to prove it against one of the best programs in college. Expect both teams to commit to the run game and grind it out in a low scoring game. It really is a coin toss on who wins, but we’re betting the total here.
THE PICK: Under 44
