The Bills-Chiefs has blossomed into one of the best rivalries in football. Since 2017, these two teams have the best records in the NFL. But one team has three Super Bowls, while the other hasn’t made it there during that stretch. Also, adding fuel to the fire, in case you forgot, Buffalo traded the No. 10 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, which the Chiefs used to draft Patrick Mahomes.
Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)
There’s no question the Chiefs got lucky last week as a blocked field goal against Denver gave them a 16-14 win. But Kansas City has looked vulnerable in nearly every game this season and has scored 30 or more points just once, yet they are a perfect 9-0. They have a top-5 defense that allows just 17.9 PPG and catch a break as the Bills are missing some receivers. Kareem Hunt has fit in well with the offense and should continue to play a big role running the ball and receiving, as he had 7 catches last week.
Buffalo Bills (8-2)
The defense has been getting it done ranking ninth in the league allowing just 19.3 points per game. They’ll have to face a Chiefs offense that has some weapons including Mahomes and Travis Kelce, who has come on of late after a slow start. Kelce has averaged 85 yards and 10 receptions over the last three weeks. The Bills are 22nd in the league against the pass, so it’ll be something to keep an eye on. The run game will be important as the Bills have ruled out rookie receiver Keon Coleman for this game and Amari Cooper is listed as questionable.
Keys to the Game
Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
He hasn’t been dominant this season but always gets the job done. Mahomes has just 12 touchdowns this season but 9 interceptions and he’s been sacked 20 times. But here’s some interesting numbers. He’s 11-3 SU and 12-1-1 ATS as an underdog over his career. The Chiefs will be on many teaser tickets, and rightfully so, as Mahomes is a perfect 14-0 ATS against a six-point teaser as an underdog in his career.
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen
Josh Allen had to spread the ball around last week without his top two receivers out with injuries. Allen used seven different receivers with Khalil Shakir leading the way with 6 receptions. The ground attack has been solid with James Cook and Allen himself as they ran for 130 yards vs the Colts last week. But KC has the third best unit against the run allowing just 83.2 PPG. Expect Allen to try to do things on his own as he has had success with his legs against KC running for 134 yards and three touchdowns in two games last season.
Game Betting Odds
Chiefs +2.5
Bills -2.5
Total: 45.5
Recent Betting Trends
The Chiefs are 5-4 ATS this season
Buffalo is 6-4 ATS through 10 games
Head-to-head Meetings
Buffalo leads the all-time series 29-25-1 and have won the last two regular season meetings in close games. But the Chiefs have won three straight in the playoffs, including back in January. The last four meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.
