Steelers, Ravens Clash in Wild Card Round: Odds, Picks, Prediction

by Ryan S. in NFL on Jan 7, 2025 1:55pm

Two AFC North rivals meet in the wild card round of the NFL playoffs, as the Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers. These teams finished 1-2 in the division but they are going in different directions as the Steelers lost four straight to end the season while the Ravens won their final four to clinch the North.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh offense has been inconsistent most of the season since Russell Wilson took over the starting job. He threw for 2,482 yards and 16 touchdowns but we saw how important George Pickens is to this unit with deep shots a big part of the arsenal. During this four-game losing streak, the Steelers have not scored more than 17 points, and will need to find ways to get back to the team that averaged 30 points over their previous seven wins. Additionally the Steelers will rely on outstanding special teams and coaches and any chance of the upset falls on the defense. Pittsburgh’s elite pass rush led by potential Defensive Player of the Year Award-winner T.J. Watt remains its best mode of attack in any matchup and if they can pester Lamar Jackson, and force him to make bad decisions, they have a shot not only to cover, but pull off the win.

Baltimore Ravens

If you look at advanced metrics the Ravens are ranked No. 1 in DVOA both offensively and overall. Baltimore’s offense is scary with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry in the backfield and weapons all over the place. The Ravens are No. 3 scoring 30.5 PPG while being the No. 1 rushing team averaging 187.6 YPG. Lamar Jackson is the defending MVP and could win it again as he’s having his best season as a passer and hasn’t run as much as before. The defense has come together with players like Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton making big contributions. The pass defense has jumped into the top-5 since December, making them formidable as the run defense is No. 1 in the NFL allowing just 80.1 YPG.

Prediction: Under 44

This line opened 46.5 but quickly dropped to 44. When these teams met in Week 16, the Ravens scored the final 17 points to pull away and win 34-17 but the game probably shouldn’t have been that high-scoring. A fourth quarter pick six didn’t help under bettors but this is the playoffs and we see two of the better defenses here. Aside from that last meeting, the previous four have gone well under this number.

Player Prop Best Bets

Derrick Henry: OVER Rushing Yards & Anytime TD

Derrick Henry finished with 1,921 rushing yards and finished the season with 3-straight games with at least 138 yards, including 162 vs the Steelers. The Ravens will pound the rock with their heavy back and at some point you know King Henry will get a huge chunk on a play. He has scored 18 total touchdowns and anything inside the five-yard line, you know he’s getting the ball.

Pat Freiermuth: OVER Receptions

Pat Freiermuth has been Russell Wilson’s safety net of late with 15 catches for 145 yards in the last two games. He’s been able to find some open space in the middle of the field and with a game script that could see the Steelers playing from behind, that means more of a passing game than running.

Props have yet to be released at time of writing, but check website for latest odds