The Texas Longhorns are looking to punch their ticket to the national championship for the first time since 2009 while Ohio State hasn’t been there since 2020. Which one of these power schools has the edge in this epic semifinal tilt? Here’s a preview.
Ohio State
After losing to Michigan as double-digit favorites, Ohio State has been on a mission. In the first round, the Buckeyes dominated Tennessee at home with a 42-17 victory while racking up 473 total yards. A week later, at the Rose Bowl, OSU got revenge against Oregon, who had beaten them earlier this season. Ohio State jumped out to a big 34-0 lead and never looked back, easily defeating the Ducks 41-21. So what changed? The defense has been unstoppable, allowing 256 yards to the Vols and then 276 to Oregon and recorded 12 sacks in two playoff games. OSU held the Ducks to -23 yards rushing thanks to a fierce pass rush. The offense has found new life with Will Howard who has thrown for over 300 yards in both playoff wins and freshman Jeremiah Smith has been incredible, 13 receptions, 290 yards and 4 touchdowns in the two wins.
Texas
Texas are lucky to get here considering they needed double overtime to get by ASU as two-touchdown favorites. The Longhorns led 24-8 in the fourth but couldn’t stop star running back Cam Skattebo who was a menace. The Longhorns run defense, which has been one of better units in the country, was shredded for 214 yards by ASU and now face an OSU team that has posted 156, and 181 yards on the ground in the playoffs. Texas has been very inconsistent of late, blowing the SEC Championship Game to Georgia, almost blowing a big lead vs Clemson, and then almost doing the same thing against Arizona State. With the Cotton Bowl taking place in their home state, the Longhorns will get the home-field advantage. The in-game story features Texas QB Quinn Ewers who transferred from Ohio State. He’ll need to play up to his top billing or the Longhorns could turn to freshman Arch Manning.
Prediction: Ohio State -5.5
The Buckeyes have been unstoppable on offense in the CFP putting up back-to-back 40-point performances. While the Longhorns will be the best defense OSU has faced this season, Texas’ offense has been inconsistent while the defense has struggled in the playoffs giving up big plays and allowing 55 points through two games, a far cry from allowing just 12 points a game during the season.
THE PICK: Buckeyes 31 Longhorns 24
Game Betting Odds
Ohio State -5.5
Texas +5.5
Total: 53.5
Moneyline: Ohio State -225, Texas +185
Recent Betting Trends
Ohio State is 8-6 ATS this season
Texas is 8-7 ATS in 2024-25
Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS against ranked opponents
Longhorns are 4-4 ATS against ranked teams
Ohio State is 12-2 SU in the last 14 games as the favorite
